How we calculate prices and signals

01Price aggregation

Prices update daily from Scryfall, which aggregates TCGPlayer Market Price (volume-weighted median of recent sales). Scryfall data covers all 100,000+ unique MTG printings.

For the top 2,000 most valuable cards, we scrape live Near Mint prices directly from TCGPlayer, Card Kingdom, and Manapool daily. These marketplace prices supplement the Scryfall baseline.

Per-card "NM price" = the Near Mint price from the marketplace with the most recent data. Condition multipliers (LP 87%, MP 73%, HP 58%, DMG 41%) are derived from TCGPlayer standards.

Foil and non-foil prices are tracked separately. All prices in USD.

02Signal types

Price spike. Current price >25% above 30-day moving average (or 7-day if less than 30 days of data). Weight: >50% = HIGH, 25–50% = MEDIUM.

Price drop. Current price >10% below 30-day moving average. Weight: >25% = HIGH, 10–25% = MEDIUM.

Buylist motion. Card Kingdom buylist price changed >20% (drop) or >15% (rise) vs 7 days ago.

Ban watch. Card is legal in a competitive format and a B&R announcement is within 14 days. Within 7 days = HIGH, 7–14 days = MEDIUM.

Volume anomaly. Coming soon — requires additional data pipeline.

Tournament impact. Coming soon — requires tournament data integration.

03Confidence levels

Every signal carries HIGH / MEDIUM / LOW confidence. These are categorical, not probabilities. We do not publish percent-confident numbers because they would imply more precision than the underlying data supports.

HIGH = the model fires above its 90th-percentile threshold against historical data. MEDIUM = 70–90. LOW = 50–70. Below 50 we suppress.

04What we do not do

We do not predict prices. Forward-looking quotes never appear in CardMind. Signals describe what is happening — interpretation is yours.

We do not run our own marketplace. No conflict of interest with the data we publish.

We do not market-make. CardMind has no inventory and no proprietary positions in cards.